Although hindsight is 20/20, there’s still a lot to be learned by looking back at Forex trading. This article was written at around midnight, March 24, 2006. By the time you read this the trading activity which we’re discussing will have already taken place.For those of you not familiar with article submission, it takes several days for your article to be published. None of the information that you are reading has been written after the fact.OK, now that that's out of the way let’s get to trading.We are firmly in a downtrend from 1.7593, and longer term from 1.7933. We have been breaking through support all week, and until we get signs or indications otherwise, the market should continue it's downward move. The next area of support is minor around the 1.7280 swing low, followed by the cluster around 1.7230 and more around 1.7147 heading down towards a complete retracements of the 1.7048 to 1.7933 move @ 1.7048. This current move could certainly continue even beyond the 1.7048 level and become a continuation of the overall down trend from 1.9549. We have further confirmation via Technical indicators. The Daily MACD has joined the 4-hour MACD in crossing to the sell side of the signal line, with what appears to be a significant crossing angle.Our resistance levels were just a little off last night, which is not to say they were bad, but we have gotten spoiled, hitting our entry levels every night this week within a couple of pips.The first area of resistance, many of our traders’ uses for a possible entry was around 1.7460 last night. The market went as high as 1.7449. When you look at the fact that a majority of our traders use about a 10 pip cushion, we were right there. Currently, we are trading around the 1.7345 level. It appears the down move is fully in place, and should continue towards the previous lows at 1.7280. If this should not hold, and we have no indication it should, we would be looking towards the next cluster of support at 1.7230 and 1.7048. If a bounce back up should occur, it would be testing the resistance cluster around 1.7600. Due to the lack of volatility, this is a very tough market to make money in. Even with these conditions, however, if you adhere to your risk vs. reward and money management rules, and you follow what he charts are telling you as far as trend direction and support and resistance, you can be very successful.Remember, taking no trade while waiting for your perfect entry is much better than taking a bad trade.Finding good support and resistance levels could be done in as little as 30 minutes per day, once you have become comfortable we’ve whatever indicators and analysis you use The easiest way to attain the knowledge necessary to find an exploit these trading levels is through an elite Forex trading course. There is no better way to reach the goals have set out in your Forex trading career that began with the quality Forex trading education.
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Eddie has trained traders for 10 years. His Forex trading course, or Forex seminar, is the only Forex trading education you need
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Forex: Online Trading Safety: Why Some Trading Experts Risk Their Own Money When Teaching This Impor
Remember this important online trading safety tip: The markets will not keep your money safe. Though this is a well known fact, many people find it quite hard to understand. They believe that, no matter what, the market and GOOD FOREX will ALWAYS COME BACK, as though this were a law.But, there`s no such law. A good online trading safety tips is to remember that forex don`t always come back, and neither do markets. If you want to think about the market in terms of laws of nature, the best one is the law of gravity, specifically:++ What goes up must come down. This is especially true for forex and sectors that have risen extremely quickly. You can protect your capital and your profits from this natural market law by setting stops. A stop is an order you place to sell or buy a position you own if it hits a specified price. It`s called a stop because it stops you from losing any more money on the position. If you`ve sold short, you can place a stop order to buy to cover if the stock rises to a specified price. Stops are not complicated to use, and they are an integral part of trading success. When we use the word STOP, we`re referring to a stop loss order. This is an order that directs your broker to sell a position you hold if the stock drops to a specified price. If you`ve sold short, you can place a stop loss buy to cover order to get out of the position if it rises to a specified price. Once the stop is triggered, it`s immediately executed as a market order.Here`s an online trading safety example. Let`s say you buy a stock at 50 dollars a share. You have reason to think it will rise, but you also realize it`s a risky trade. You know that if the stock drops below 48.50, it means there`s trouble with the trade and you`ll want out. So, after buying the stock, you place another order: a stop sell order at 48.40. This tells the broker that if there is market action at 48.40, or below, to sell your shares immediately in the form of a market order. They`ll be sold at the current bid, whatever that is. This will happen automatically, so you won`t have to watch the stock closely. It also means you won`t be tempted to hold on longer, hoping that the stock will go back up.In general, there are two types of stop orders: stop loss and stop limit. However, some brokers use slightly different names for various order types, and may not offer all order types to their clients. I`ve already described the stop loss order.A stop limit order is an order to sell a position at a specific price and no lower than that price, if the stock drops to that price or to buy to cover a stock sold short at a specific price and no higher than that price if it rises to that price. Once the stop is triggered, the order is executed only if it can be executed at the limit price or better, it becomes a limit order. In my opinion, you shouldn`t use stop limit orders, it needlessly increases your risk. If a stock`s price is dropping fast, chances are good that a stop limit order won`t execute at all.Let`s say the stock from the earlier example does drop. It hits 48.40, and the stop is triggered. The stop order becomes a market order to sell. This means that it will execute immediately at the current bid price. The same principles apply to stops on short positions. If you sell a stock short at 13 dollars, expecting it to go down, you should place a buy to cover order at, say, 13.75. If the stock suddenly rises sharply, you`re protected and you can always re short the stock at its peak price later.Let`s go back to the stock the trader bought for 50 dollars. If the stock is falling slowly, the market order may execute at 48.40, slightly lower, or even, occasionally, slightly higher. If it`s falling quickly, it could execute a little below 48.40. If the stock is falling very quickly, it could execute well below 48.40.The possibility that they could be stopped out of a position far below the trigger price is one reason traders may avoid using stops. Although this could happen, it`s better than the alternative, to keep holding the position while it goes even lower. Besides, in most cases the position will be stopped out quite near the trigger price. In addition to fearing a bad execution price, some people are afraid that the position will start to go back up immediately after their stop sell order`s been executed. A stock may occasionally bounce right at the point where you set your stop, as a random occurrence. But, the smart trader weighs this rare frustration against all the times he`ll save much more money by using stops to get out of losing positions. Think of it as the cost of insurance. Just don`t forget this last online trading safety tip; using stops as insurance will occasionally cost you a little, but it will save you many times more in the long run, and you don`t often get a chance to insure against a law of nature.
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A Look Back At Forex Trading – 3/28/06
We are starting to sound like a broken record, but Cable is in a very tight trading range. It is really difficult to make profit targets when the daily range is less then 50 Pips. For most of the day it was less than 40 pips. With that said, once again we were perfect with our entry, which was 1.7490. The most the market went against us was 3 pips, and with some good exit strategies we were able to take a 30-pip profit out of a very tough day. This brings me to an interesting subject that we will discuss today. When the market gets as tight as it has been over the last couple of weeks, it calls for some minor adjustments to be made to your personal trading strategy. One adjustment I am making and would like to put out to our subscribers is that until the market shows an increase in the daily range I am decreasing the maximum allowable stop loss from 40 Pips to 30 Pips. This is not just something I came up with out of the blue, there are reasons and rationale for this adjustment that I would like to share with you and get you thinking about what you could adjust in your own personal strategy. And please feel free to drop us an email describing your adjustment if you would like to share them. The first thing I looked at which will allow me the luxury of reducing my stop loss is that our entry’s have been so good. Since our last losing day, 3/14/06 when our trade went against us for 40 pips, we have had only one trade go against us for more than 20 pips ( 23 pips on 3/15/06). Over the past three week had we used a static 30 pip stop loss, it would not have stopped us out of any trades, and it would have reduced our losses by 25%. This also allows us to move our profit targets down and still maintain good risk to reward ratios. We must move our profit targets down due to the small daily ranges. Had we used a 30 Pip profit target as the first target using 1:1 risk to reward ratio we would have closed four additional trades from 120 additional pips. Just a thought I wanted to share. Cable is definitely in consolidation, and is right where it was at this time last night, its banging up against resistance right now trading around 1.7460. This resistance is pretty strong with multiple levels in a tight region, which goes from 1.7460 all the way up to 1.7510. Consolidation should be expected to continue for the next few days with the early bias on the up side, but if the resistance holds below 1.7510 we will expect the price action to resume its downward move towards 1.7048.As we discussed previously, this is a very tough market to make money in. The daily ranges just get too tight to be able to get in trades and hit profit. Making minor adjustment to your personal trading technique is imperative in this type of market if you expect to continue making profits. Getting the proper forex trading education, to be able to recognize that adjustments should be made, and more importantly understand how to make those adjustments, is the best way to survive and thrive in this or any kind of market. Learn to be an independent trader and control your own future.We find these support and resistance levels using a set of technical indicators and other variables that we have found to be most successful for us. We use several other indicators and a variety of technical analysis techniques to enter and exit all of our trades. Every trader will have a different combination of indicators that makes the most sense to them. Learn how to develop your own successful Forex Trading style by getting a Forex trading education. Regardless of whether you choose a Forex trading course or Forex seminar, you must hone your skills before losing your money.
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Eddie has trained traders for 10 years. His Forex trading course, or Forex seminar, is the only Forex trading education you need.
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Eddie has trained traders for 10 years. His Forex trading course, or Forex seminar, is the only Forex trading education you need.
Unbreakable Forex Trading Rules Guaranteed To Increase Profits
There are a few important forex trading rules in trading that should never be broken. If you apply these rules consistently, and with discipline, you will become a profitable trader. Many traders have learned a diplomatic code of conduct that have been learned the hard way by many traders, through trial and error, and by making the inevitable mistakes that everyone makes when they start a trading business. I've gone over a couple of these codes of conduct in this article. Learn from them now, so you won't have to relearn them later.As a trader one of the first forex trading rules is this, you need to know what you are trying to achieve. Without specific forex trading rules in place like goals and objectives, it's difficult to succeed at any enterprise. It amazes me how often we can hit our targets, meet our objectives, and reach our goals, when we've taken the time to write down what we want to achieve. One of the second forex trading rules is that you need to have measurable, achievable goals. In trading, the primary objective is obviously to make money, but it is important to have other objectives that are not strictly cash related. Remember, reward and risk go hand in hand when you are trading. You can't achieve high returns without planning and bracing for high risks.Your objectives and goals have to fit you if they are going to work, but they should also have the following characteristics to be useful. First, your forex trading rules need to be measurable. If you can't measure your results against your goals, how will you ever know if you've achieved them? Secondly your forex trading rules need to be realistic and achievable. Make sure they are worth the time and effort you are going to put into them. Lastly, these should be positive goals. It's easier to be successful when you are trying to do something, rather than to not do it.If you know what you are trying to gain in your trading, and when you are trying to achieve it, the whole of your efforts will be focused on meeting your objectives. It focuses your attention on the things you really want to achieve with the time and resources that you have available. Having goals will also give you a way to effectively measure the success and progress of your trading strategy. It's pretty clear why traders who have well defined objectives are more successful than those that do not.Once you have set measurable, achievable goals in your forex trading rules, you need a way to meet them. Successful traders that have good forex trading rules in place do this by being consistent and disciplined in their approach to trading. How do they make their approach consistent? By developing and following a carefully planned trading system. This is a system tailored to their trading style, as their goals are tailored to their preferences. Once you have your system in place, you need to follow it. The system will tell you when to enter a trade, where to set your stops, and when to exit. A good trader follows their system and does what it tells them to.One of the third set of skills you need in your forex trading rules is that you need to be confident in your system, to have access to the right kind of technology and information, and to have the discipline to stick to your plan. Without a plan you will be trading on impulse, guided by emotions. There is no more reliable way to loose trades than by trading that way. With a trading system you are prepared for every situation you may face in your trading. This ensures you'll be consistent in your trading no matter what happens. To make sure you cover everything, your system should have:1. You guidelines for entering, adding to, and getting out of your positions.2. You need guidelines that have an action plan in case your trading computer, internet connection, broker, power, telephone etc. break down, or fails to be of any real use.3. You need a code of conduct that will tell you what you will do if you are unable to trade.4. You need a standard procedure that will tell you what you will do if you lose a certain percentage of your account5. You need formalities that will tell you what you will do if all the markets are closed and you can't get out of your current positions.Unless you have answers for all these scenarios that you need in your forex trading rules, you stand a good chance of loosing money. With the answers, and discipline you'll be able to tell if you trading system needs to be tweaked, or if it's just the markets. You will be well on your way to becoming a successful trader.
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Forex Day Trading Versus Position Trading - The Pros and Cons
Trading can be fun and exciting when you daytrade and very boring when you position trade. Our motto: get in, get out and go play!WHY We Want To Day Trade Versus Position Trade1) We want to spend only a few short hours each day trading, sometimes just a few minutes!2) We don't want to hold any overnight positions!3) We don't want to hedge!4) We want the fun of the quicker action and quicker profits!5) We want more profits with less risk!So keep these goals in mind as you learn our trading techniques!Be patient in your learning process and keep in your awareness that if you learn this trading system successfully, you will have a cash cow system FOR LIFE that is safe, independent, portable and highly profitable. It will give you the freedom to quit your J.O.B. (Just Over Broke) and travel the world and earn a great living, with just a portable laptop and your debit card!The currency pairs are made to swing, so trade with ease and without fear. Quickly close out a losing position...don't dream/hope that it will turn back into profit! It often doesn't!Don't be radically bullish or bearish, swing trade within the trading range of the day, go with the short term trend.If you can develop the mental and emotional disciplines to trade according to these guidelines, you'll do very well and become very successful!Ideas About Trading in the Different Time FramesEach person needs to experiment with the different time frames and moving averages to find out what he/she is most suited for, time-wise and personality-wise. This takes time and lots of practice and patience in your demo account.If you have a J.O.B., then what we teach is perfect for you if you can trade during the busiest hours, between 3 am to 11 am EST. Even 1 hour of trading in the 1-5-10 or 15 minute chart will make you enough money for the day. You can do multiple scalping trades in the 1 and 5 minute chart, or one trade in the 10 or 15 minute chart, and then go to work. If you get lucky and hit a breakout or breakdown, no matter what time frame you are in, you can make as much as 30 -100 pips in a few minutes! YOU ONLY NEED 20 PIPS A DAY TO BE RICH!Some people love scalp trading, which are quick trades in the 1 and 5 minute charts for small but quick profits; and some love day trading, mostly done in the 10 and 15 and 30 minute charts, which simply means you close out all positions before the end of the trading day.If you do one or more trades in one day that rides the price up and down and you close each position out, that is called day trade swing trading. And some prefer swing trading over the course of several days or weeks, which I call position trading, mostly done in the 1 or 2 or 4 hour charts.We personally scalp and short term day trade, which is really just one-day swing trading. If you use a 1 or 5 minute chart with a 20 pip initial stop loss with a 10-15 pip trailing stop after breakeven, and/or a 10-50 pip limit, you will do very well without big risk or staring at your computer screen until you fall asleep or go blind! Our motto: get in, get out and go play!The beauty of this method is that you don't have to have your PC on all the time or be glued to it or worry about overnight positions. The trade-off is that the longer plays make more money, although, they do carry more inherent risk. So again, staying with your trade in the beginning until you've moved your stop to a breakeven, is your first goal, and this is true for every time frame you decide to trade in.Keep a trading journalFinally, it is a good practice to keep a simple trading journal. This way you can keep track of your trades and progress and be able to analyze, improve and hone your trading skills.Simply include the time you entered and exited the trade, the currency pair, the chart time frame (this is important), and the strategy (breakout, trend or top or bottom). Also include write down what happened and what you could have done differently for future reference.Not every trade can be a winner but in order for you to be a consistent winner, you need to do two things: keep your losses small and manage your margin conservatively.We recommend that you trade no more than 5-10% of your account size in each trade. 5% is safer. It's easier to make up the losses, when they happen, and they will happen!!! And ALWAYS use stops! Learn to manage your money wisely...invest small amounts each time and keep your losses small and when you're in profit, let your profits run with a trailing stop.What "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" says about trading:"It's not gambling if you know what you're doing. It is gambling if you're just throwing money into a trade and praying. The idea in trading is to use your technical knowledge, wisdom and love of the game to cut the odds down, to lower the risk. Of course there is always risk. It is financial intelligence that improves the odds."Robert T. Kiyosaki"Knowing how to take a loss for the trader is as significant for him or her as learning to overcome the fear of death was for the samurai warrior."Robert KoppelWhat's the best way to stay positive no matter what? Celebrate your losses! Get up and dance, do a little jig, blow a horn, yell yippie, another loss! Remember, you love the game and winning and losing are both part of the game!
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Erol Bortucene and Cynthia Macy are co-authors of The Day Trade Forex System: The Ultimate Step-By-Step Guide To Online Currency Trading: The Day Trade Forex Trading Systems
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Erol Bortucene and Cynthia Macy are co-authors of The Day Trade Forex System: The Ultimate Step-By-Step Guide To Online Currency Trading: The Day Trade Forex Trading Systems
Forex Trading an Overlooked But Very Lucrative Market
One of the most appealing ways to attain wealth is to play the stock market. With the advent of the Internet and on line brokers traders have seemingly unrestricted access to various trading products that just 10 years ago were reserved for big financial institutions. A trading product that has been overlooked by many traders is forex.Forex is derived from the words FOReign EXchange and involves the trading of currencies. Until relatively recently trading forex has been the preserve of banks and other large financial institutions. In the last 5 years forex trading has literally exploded among ordinary traders. When the advantages of forex trading become apparent this is not surprising. The forex market is the largest financial market in the world with an estimated daily turnover of $1.5 trillion dollars. This is 30 times larger than all the US stock markets combined. Further more the forex market is open 24 hours a day 5 days a week.The size of the forex market is one of its first benefits. The forex market is very liquid and has high volume. Liquidity is a great asset many traders look for because it means a deal can always be done. Forex is a continuous 24-hour market. This is very desirable if you wish to trade part-time as you can choose what time you trade unlike stock markets that are open only 8 hours a day. This 24-hour market almost removes the problem of gapping. Because most stock markets are only open 8 hours a day often-overnight events can cause stocks to gap up or down. Large gaps can especially cause large losses for people who trade derivative products like futures or options. In the forex market the problem of gapping is very much reduced.Currencies are always traded in pairs. Usually currencies are traded in pairs against the US dollar. The main pairs are US dollar Vs EURO ( EUR), British Pound (GDP), Swiss Franc (CHF), Japanese yen (JPY), Australian Dollar (AUS), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Canadian dollar(CAD). There are other currencies pairs but most traders prefer to trade the pairs above. These currency pairs are known as the majors. Currency traders have plenty of trading opportunities from these 7 major currency pairs. Compare this against the stock market where more than 8,000 stocks trade on the three primary US stock exchanges and currency traders can focus just on these 7 pairs and still make plenty of money.Unlike the stock market there is never bullish or bearish market conditions. Currencies go up or down against each other according to how the world financial markets perceive the value of the currencies. You can sell a currency (go short) just as easy as you can buy a currency( go long). Currencies go up and down and you can trade either direction just as easily ensuring there is always plenty of trading opportunities.Forex brokers don’t charge commission or brokerage. This can be quite a large overhead in other financial markets. Forex brokers make their money on the difference between the bid/ask spread of a currency pair. As the forex market is very liquid the spread between the bid/ask is very small. As many stock traders know brokerage can be a significant transaction cost.You can start trading forex for as little as $300 dollars. There are two types of accounts a mini forex account and regular forex account. Most forex brokers offer 100: 1 leverage which means a in a mini account you can control $10,000 currency position with $100. In a regular account $1000 controls a $100,000 currency position. This provides great leverage and an extremely efficient use of trading capitol. Trading a mini account is a great way on how to learn to how to trade forex. When you paper trade you are having a comfortable armchair ride. You are trading without the emotions of putting real money on the table. When you trade a 1 mini currency lot you can set your stop loss so the most you lose is $100. This is a great way to learn how to trade effectively without risking much money. In most other trading products even when trading with the smallest trading lot possible you would have to risk much more. Forex provides trading opportunities for people without much trading capitol.Many traders have overlooked forex trading. It has many benefits that all traders can use to their advantage. It offers the benefit of trading 24 hours a day in any country in the world. The forex market is a very lucrative market no trader can overlook it.
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To get more information about the opportunities of forex trading please visit www.ultimateforextrading.com
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To get more information about the opportunities of forex trading please visit www.ultimateforextrading.com
Forex Currency Trading Made Easy!
Forex is a stock market that is based on the trade of Liquid currencies. Liquid currencies are the currencies of countries which have the stability to back up their currency with commodities such as gold and silver. Forex currency trading has become the working man’s stock choice because you are able to trade at your convenience 24 hours a day.Forex currency trading has become popular because it is backed by the world’s leading financial institution and you are playing the stock market based on cash and not just supply and demand, your placing your money in the market hoping the exchange rate you are buying into will come out in the end with the most profit. For example If you are placing your money being USD into the forex currency trading market and your currency of choice for the trade gains backing and increases in exchange rate, you make profit.Forex currency trading is effected by many different variables which change day to day. Some of these variables include economic and political conditions in each respective country offering their currency on the Forex market. If the economy takes a hit on any given day, you can be sure you will see a drop in the currency exchange rate and you will experience a greater loss. During war, if a specific country is at war with another country you can also guarantee there may be a greater loss due to the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the currency being traded.If a country sees an increase in economical gain, such as the opening of new trade routes or new commodities being traded internationally, then you would expect that the cost of the currency exchange for their currency would increase, making their currency worth more than the previous day. In turn, inflation in the currency exchange rate would prove profitable if the trader sold their shares high. As they say in the stock markets you want to buy low and sell high. If conditions become poor in a country whose currency is traded in the forex market then you may risk losing money. This is why forex currency trading has become a widely popular practice.Because of the ever-changing world we live in most people who participate in forex currency trading are doing so on a short trading timeline. Because of things that may happen with any one particular economy on any given day and even people believing some rumors about a countries prosper or demise, it is most common for forex currency trading participants to sell their shares in a more quick manner than they would do so in a standard stock market situation.If you place your money in the forex currency trading on the Japanese Yen, and then you hear that Japan just launched a new brand of electronics that will be popular all over the globe, or if you hear of 2 Japanese electronics companies completing a merger to provide consumers with a better product, you would assume by the rumor mill that the exchange rate of the Yen will be set to increase, and you will want to hold your place in that market, only to find out the exact opposite. For example, a automotive plant has decided to shut down production and lay off many of their employees, which would cause the exchange rate of the Yen to drop. Since you decided to hold on a rumor, and the opposite occurred, you would lose more money instead of reducing your risk by selling based on major trend and fact instead of rumor.
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Sandra Stammberger is the editor ofCouk9. An online firectory focusing on finance, forex.
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Sandra Stammberger is the editor ofCouk9. An online firectory focusing on finance, forex.
Euro Economic News Release Trading Strategies
The Euro responds very well to US economic news releases. There is at least one US news release each week when the market moves very fast and is an excellent (although stressful) way to make some quick big pips. One way to capture these large moves is to use ENTRY STOP ORDERS. Entry stop orders are an excellent way to get into a trade long or short AUTOMATICALLY. Often if the market is moving extremely fast (due to an economic news release or geopolitical event) and you want to get into a trade, it is extremely difficult to get the price you click (live market order) because the exchange rate is moving up or down so fast. It is like trying to jump on a train that is moving at full speed. An entry stop buy or sell order places an order with the dealing desk of your Forex clearing house to execute your order when the exchange rate touches the level you set the order at. The only time I wouldn't set an entry order would be on a Friday afternoon before the market closes for the weekend. When it re-opens on Sunday evening, the price may gap open and miss your entry order. Nevertheless, we don't recommend holding a trade open over the weekend anyway....too much can happen on a world level that can affect the price when the market re-opens....and not always in your favor!The following Yahoo page outlines the economic news releases for the week. I find it very helpful because it rates every release in terms of importance on a grading scale of A-D. A denotes very important down to D with little significance to the markets. It even lists what the market expects to happen with the briefing.com forecast. I take the time on the weekend to make a note of the day and hour of the major US news releases scheduled for the next week. 1. Check the biz.yahoo.com/c/e/html economic Calendar 2. Set your entry stop buy or sell at a key level 15-30 minutes before the announcement is released. Set your stop and limit on your order by right clicking the order when it appears on your VT platform. 3. You can also "straddle" the price movement by placing a long and short entry stop or sell order (and subsequent stops) if you aren't sure which direction the news release will send the price. In actuality, "straddling" a trade is the most risk-free and stress-free way of trading the news. You have to practice it in a demo account to get good at it because very quickly, you'll be closing out the losing leg.Another trading technique would be to simply wait 5 or 10 minutes before putting on a trade after a major news release. Wait for the smoke to clear and the way to see the direction. The volatility will move the market for 30 minutes to a few hours in one direction. Put on your trade in a fast 5 min chart but then switch to a 15 minute chart to stay in the trend longer without prematurely exiting. An easy way to trade is to only trade the major US news releases....the rest of the trading week can pretty dull, in comparison!Remember, under all trade circumstances, trade with a stop. And keep moving it in your trade direction by about 15 pips at a time, to lock in ever-increasing pip profits! This stop trailing technique is taught in our Advanced forex course.The above report was taken from the Euro Fractal Trading system, written by Erol Bortucene of the Day Trade Forex Team. This unique approach to day trading the EUR/USD involves using financial Fractals and no other technical indicators, as outlined in the Euro Fractal Trading System. Byline: Erol Bortucene and Cynthia Macy are co-authors of 'The Day Trade Forex System: The Ultimate Step-By-Step Guide To Online Currency Trading'.
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Cynthia Macy is a trader with 12 years experience trading stock options and forex. She has co-authored 3 popular forex training ebooks. Day Trade Forex Trading Systemswww.1000tradingwords.com/
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Cynthia Macy is a trader with 12 years experience trading stock options and forex. She has co-authored 3 popular forex training ebooks. Day Trade Forex Trading Systemswww.1000tradingwords.com/
Get To Know The Major Central Banks
The one factor that is sure to move the currency markets is interest rates. Interest rates give international investors a reason to shift money from one country to another in search of the highest and safest yields. For years now, growing interest rate spreads between countries have been the main focus of professional investors, but what most individual traders do not know is that the absolute value of interest rates is not what's important - what really matters are the expectations of where interest rates are headed in the future. Familiarizing yourself with what makes the central banks tick will give you a leg up when it comes to predicting their next moves, as well as the future direction of a given currency pair. In this article, we look at the structure and primary focus of each of the major central banks, and give you the scoop on the major players within these banks. We also explain how to combine the relative monetary policies of each central bank to predict where the interest rate spread between a currency pair is headed.ExamplesTake the performance of the NZD/JPY currency pair between 2002 and 2005, for example. During that time, the central bank of New Zealand increased interest rates from 4.75% to 7.25%. Japan, on the other hand, kept its interest rates at 0%, which meant that the interest rate spread between the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen widened a full 250 basis points. This contributed to the NZD/JPY's 58% rally during the same period.
Figure 1On the flip side, we see that throughout 2005, the British pound fell more than 8% against the U.S. dollar. Even though the United Kingdom had higher interest rates than the United States throughout those 12 months, the pound suffered as the interest rate spread narrowed from 250 basis points in the pound's favor to a premium of a mere 25 basis points. This confirms that it is the future direction of interest rates that matters most, not which country has a higher interest rate.
Figure 2The Eight Major Central BanksU.S. Federal Reserve System (The Fed)Structure - The Federal Reserve is probably the most influential central bank in the world. With the U.S. dollar being on the other side of approximately 90% of all currency transactions, the Fed's sway has a sweeping effect on the valuation of many currencies. The group within the Fed that decides on interest rates is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board plus five presidents of the 12 district reserve banks. Mandate - Long-term price stability and sustainable growthFrequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Following former chairman Alan Greenspan's retirement in January 2006, U.S. President George W. Bush tapped Bernanke to head the Federal Reserve, given his four years of experience on the Fed board of governors. His views differ from Greenspan's in that he believes in inflation targeting and printing money to avoid deflation. The historic change of power at the U.S. central bank marks the first time in two decades that an academic, who may focus more on mathematical and econometric models, is chairing the Fed.European Central Bank (ECB)Structure - The European Central Bank was established in 1999. The governing council of the ECB is the group that decides on changes to monetary policy. The council consists of the six members of the executive board of the ECB, plus the governors of all the national central banks from the 12 euro area countries. As a central bank, the ECB does not like surprises. Therefore, whenever it plans on making a change to interest rates, it will generally give the market ample notice by warning of an impending move through comments to the press. Mandate - Price stability and sustainable growth. However, unlike the Fed, the ECB strives to maintain the annual growth in consumer prices below 2%. As an export dependent economy, the ECB also has a vested interest in preventing against excess strength in its currency because this poses a risk to its export market.Frequency of Meeting - Bi-weekly, but policy decisions are generally only made at meetings where there is an accompanying press conference, and those happen 11 times a year.Key Policy Official - Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Prior to succeeding Wim Duisenberg as ECB president in November 2003, Trichet was the president of Bank of France. He has a reputation for being a cautious and forthright banker, though many criticize his slow response to European economic stagnation and high unemployment. Typically seen as a hawk with a bias toward making preemptive moves to ward off inflation, Trichet has the huge responsibility of managing the monetary policy of 12 nations. Bank of England (BoE)Structure - The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England is a nine-member committee consisting of a governor, two deputy governors, two executive directors and four outside experts. The BoE, under the leadership of Mervyn King, is frequently touted as one of the most effective central banks.Mandate - To maintain monetary and financial stability. The BoE's monetary policy mandate is to keep prices stable and to maintain confidence in the currency. To accomplish this, the central bank has an inflation target of 2%. If prices breach that level, the central bank will look to curb inflation, while a level far below 2% will prompt the central bank to take measures to boost inflation.Frequency of Meeting - Monthly Key Policy Official - Mervyn A. King, governor of the Bank of England. Prior to assuming the role of BoE governor on June 30, 2003, King was a professor at the London School of Economics. Initially joining the BoE in 1990, he became an executive director and chief economist in March 1991 and was promoted to deputy governor in 1997. King's "Goldilocks" monetary policy, which is neither too restrictive nor too accommodative, has propelled the U.K.'s economy into its longest streak of uninterrupted growth in 200 years.Bank of Japan (BoJ)Structure - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee consists of the BoJ governor, two deputy governors and six other members. Because Japan is very dependent on exports, the BoJ has an even more active interest than the ECB does in preventing an excessively strong currency. The central bank has been known to come into the open market to artificially weaken its currency by selling it against U.S. dollars and euros. The BoJ is also extremely vocal when it feels concerned about excess currency volatility and strength.Mandate - To maintain price stability and to ensure stability of the financial system, which makes inflation the central bank's top focus.Frequency of Meeting - Once or twice a monthKey Policy Official - Toshihiko Fukui, governor of Bank of Japan. A lifelong bureaucrat, Fukui joined the bank of Japan in 1958 and held various posts before succeeding Masaru Hayami as governor on March 19, 2003. Although Fukui has a reputation for being conservative, he has implemented new policies geared toward greater transparency, such as publishing BoJ economic outlooks and detailed minutes of policy meetings. On March 9, 2006, he ended the five-year-old ultra-loose monetary policy and prepared for a return to conventional rate targeting.Swiss National Bank (SNB)Structure - The Swiss National Bank has a three-person committee that makes decisions on interest rates. Unlike most other central banks, the SNB determines the interest rate band rather than a specific target rate. Like Japan and the euro zone, Switzerland is also very export dependent, which means that the SNB also does not have an interest in seeing its currency become too strong. Therefore, its general bias is to be more conservative with rate hikes. Mandate - To ensure price stability while taking the economic situation into account Frequency of Meeting - QuarterlyKey Policy Official - Jean-Pierre Roth, chairman of the Swiss National Bank. Roth has spent most of his professional career at the SNB, starting in 1979; he assumed the role of chairman of the governing board in 2001. Roth is also a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements and is governor of the International Monetary Fund for Switzerland. Bank of Canada (BoC)Structure - Monetary policy decisions within the Bank of Canada are made by a consensus vote by Governing Council, which consists of the Bank of Canada governor, the senior deputy governor and four deputy governors.Mandate - Maintaining the integrity and value of the currency. The central bank has an inflation target of 1-3%, and it has done a good job of keeping inflation within that band since 1998.Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - David Dodge, governor of the Bank of Canada. Princeton-educated Dodge held various public offices and taught at a few universities throughout the U.S. and Canada before taking office as the central bank governor in 2001. He is known for being frank and open about his beliefs, and has also been credited for carefully balancing inflation with currency appreciation. Mark Carney is set to replace Dodge in February 2008.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)Structure - The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy committee consists of the central bank governor, the deputy governor, the secretary to the treasurer and six independent members appointed by the government.Mandate - To ensure stability of currency, maintenance of full employment and economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia. The central bank has an inflation target of 2-3% per year.Frequency of Meeting - Eleven times a year, usually on the first Tuesday of each month (with the exception of January)Key Policy Official - Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stevens has been with the RBA since 1980. Prior to succeeding Ian Macfarlane, Stevens held a variety of positions at the RBA, from head of the Economic Analysis Department to deputy governor in December 2001. As with his predecessor, he is expected to keep a close eye on inflation, which is expected to be a challenge as the Australian economy continues to boom.Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)Structure - Unlike other central banks, decision-making power on monetary policy ultimately rests with the central bank governor.Mandate - To maintain price stability and to avoid instability in output, interest rates and exchange rates. The RBNZ has an inflation target of 1.5%. It focuses hard on this target, because failure to meet it could result in the dismissal of the governor of the RBNZ.Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - Alan Bollard, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Before his appointment as governor of the RBNZ in September 2002, Bollard served as secretary of the treasury, chairman of the NZ Commerce Commission and director of the NZ Institute of Economic Research. Known as a strong inflation hawk with extensive economic training, Bollard has condemned large current account deficits and raised New Zealand interest rates to a high level of 8.25%. (For further reading, see Current Account Deficits and Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of Payments.)
FREE REPORT: The Five Things That Move the Currency Market
Year after year, key players in the Forex market make a killing by picking the right currencies – now it’s your turn. Access industry gurus Boris and Kathy’s exclusive FREE report, The Five Things That Move the Currency Market – And How to Profit From Them, right now! Putting It All TogetherNow that you know a little more about the structure, mandate and power players behind each of the major central banks, you are on your way to being able to better predict the moves these central banks may make. For many central banks, the inflation target is key. If inflation, which is generally measured by the consumer price index, is above the central bank's target, then you know that it will have a bias toward tighter monetary policy. By the same token, if inflation is far below the target, the central bank will be looking to loosen monetary policy. Combining the relative monetary policies of two central banks is a solid way to predict where a currency pair may be headed. If one central bank is raising interest rates while another is sticking to the status quo, the currency pair is expected to move in the direction of the interest rate spread (barring any unforeseen circumstances). A perfect example is EUR/GBP in 2006. The euro broke out of its traditional range-trading mode to accelerate against the British pound. With consumer prices above the European Central Bank's 2% target, the ECB was clearly looking to raise rates a few more times. The Bank of England, on the other hand, had inflation slightly below its own target and its economy was just beginning to show signs of recovery, preventing it from making any changes to interest rates. In fact, throughout the first three months of 2006, the BoE was leaning more toward lowering interest rates than raising them. This led to a 200-pip rally in EUR/GBP, which is pretty big for a currency pair that rarely moves.
Figure 3Curious to learn more about central banks and monetary policy? Check out What Are Central Banks?, Formulating Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve Tutorial.
by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist, FXCM Access Investopedia's FREE Forex Report - The 5 Things That Move The Currency Market (Email Biography)Kathy Lien is Chief Strategist at the world's largest retail forex market maker, Forex Capital Markets in New York. Her book "Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Swings" (2005, Wiley), written for both the novice and expert, has won much acclaim. Easy to read and easy to apply, this book shows traders how to enter the currency market with confidence - and create long-term success! Kathy has taught currency trading seminars across the U.S. and has also written for CBS MarketWatch, Active Trader, Futures Magazine and SFO Magazine. Follow her blog at www.kathylien.com
Figure 1On the flip side, we see that throughout 2005, the British pound fell more than 8% against the U.S. dollar. Even though the United Kingdom had higher interest rates than the United States throughout those 12 months, the pound suffered as the interest rate spread narrowed from 250 basis points in the pound's favor to a premium of a mere 25 basis points. This confirms that it is the future direction of interest rates that matters most, not which country has a higher interest rate.
Figure 2The Eight Major Central BanksU.S. Federal Reserve System (The Fed)Structure - The Federal Reserve is probably the most influential central bank in the world. With the U.S. dollar being on the other side of approximately 90% of all currency transactions, the Fed's sway has a sweeping effect on the valuation of many currencies. The group within the Fed that decides on interest rates is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board plus five presidents of the 12 district reserve banks. Mandate - Long-term price stability and sustainable growthFrequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Following former chairman Alan Greenspan's retirement in January 2006, U.S. President George W. Bush tapped Bernanke to head the Federal Reserve, given his four years of experience on the Fed board of governors. His views differ from Greenspan's in that he believes in inflation targeting and printing money to avoid deflation. The historic change of power at the U.S. central bank marks the first time in two decades that an academic, who may focus more on mathematical and econometric models, is chairing the Fed.European Central Bank (ECB)Structure - The European Central Bank was established in 1999. The governing council of the ECB is the group that decides on changes to monetary policy. The council consists of the six members of the executive board of the ECB, plus the governors of all the national central banks from the 12 euro area countries. As a central bank, the ECB does not like surprises. Therefore, whenever it plans on making a change to interest rates, it will generally give the market ample notice by warning of an impending move through comments to the press. Mandate - Price stability and sustainable growth. However, unlike the Fed, the ECB strives to maintain the annual growth in consumer prices below 2%. As an export dependent economy, the ECB also has a vested interest in preventing against excess strength in its currency because this poses a risk to its export market.Frequency of Meeting - Bi-weekly, but policy decisions are generally only made at meetings where there is an accompanying press conference, and those happen 11 times a year.Key Policy Official - Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Prior to succeeding Wim Duisenberg as ECB president in November 2003, Trichet was the president of Bank of France. He has a reputation for being a cautious and forthright banker, though many criticize his slow response to European economic stagnation and high unemployment. Typically seen as a hawk with a bias toward making preemptive moves to ward off inflation, Trichet has the huge responsibility of managing the monetary policy of 12 nations. Bank of England (BoE)Structure - The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England is a nine-member committee consisting of a governor, two deputy governors, two executive directors and four outside experts. The BoE, under the leadership of Mervyn King, is frequently touted as one of the most effective central banks.Mandate - To maintain monetary and financial stability. The BoE's monetary policy mandate is to keep prices stable and to maintain confidence in the currency. To accomplish this, the central bank has an inflation target of 2%. If prices breach that level, the central bank will look to curb inflation, while a level far below 2% will prompt the central bank to take measures to boost inflation.Frequency of Meeting - Monthly Key Policy Official - Mervyn A. King, governor of the Bank of England. Prior to assuming the role of BoE governor on June 30, 2003, King was a professor at the London School of Economics. Initially joining the BoE in 1990, he became an executive director and chief economist in March 1991 and was promoted to deputy governor in 1997. King's "Goldilocks" monetary policy, which is neither too restrictive nor too accommodative, has propelled the U.K.'s economy into its longest streak of uninterrupted growth in 200 years.Bank of Japan (BoJ)Structure - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee consists of the BoJ governor, two deputy governors and six other members. Because Japan is very dependent on exports, the BoJ has an even more active interest than the ECB does in preventing an excessively strong currency. The central bank has been known to come into the open market to artificially weaken its currency by selling it against U.S. dollars and euros. The BoJ is also extremely vocal when it feels concerned about excess currency volatility and strength.Mandate - To maintain price stability and to ensure stability of the financial system, which makes inflation the central bank's top focus.Frequency of Meeting - Once or twice a monthKey Policy Official - Toshihiko Fukui, governor of Bank of Japan. A lifelong bureaucrat, Fukui joined the bank of Japan in 1958 and held various posts before succeeding Masaru Hayami as governor on March 19, 2003. Although Fukui has a reputation for being conservative, he has implemented new policies geared toward greater transparency, such as publishing BoJ economic outlooks and detailed minutes of policy meetings. On March 9, 2006, he ended the five-year-old ultra-loose monetary policy and prepared for a return to conventional rate targeting.Swiss National Bank (SNB)Structure - The Swiss National Bank has a three-person committee that makes decisions on interest rates. Unlike most other central banks, the SNB determines the interest rate band rather than a specific target rate. Like Japan and the euro zone, Switzerland is also very export dependent, which means that the SNB also does not have an interest in seeing its currency become too strong. Therefore, its general bias is to be more conservative with rate hikes. Mandate - To ensure price stability while taking the economic situation into account Frequency of Meeting - QuarterlyKey Policy Official - Jean-Pierre Roth, chairman of the Swiss National Bank. Roth has spent most of his professional career at the SNB, starting in 1979; he assumed the role of chairman of the governing board in 2001. Roth is also a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements and is governor of the International Monetary Fund for Switzerland. Bank of Canada (BoC)Structure - Monetary policy decisions within the Bank of Canada are made by a consensus vote by Governing Council, which consists of the Bank of Canada governor, the senior deputy governor and four deputy governors.Mandate - Maintaining the integrity and value of the currency. The central bank has an inflation target of 1-3%, and it has done a good job of keeping inflation within that band since 1998.Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - David Dodge, governor of the Bank of Canada. Princeton-educated Dodge held various public offices and taught at a few universities throughout the U.S. and Canada before taking office as the central bank governor in 2001. He is known for being frank and open about his beliefs, and has also been credited for carefully balancing inflation with currency appreciation. Mark Carney is set to replace Dodge in February 2008.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)Structure - The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy committee consists of the central bank governor, the deputy governor, the secretary to the treasurer and six independent members appointed by the government.Mandate - To ensure stability of currency, maintenance of full employment and economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia. The central bank has an inflation target of 2-3% per year.Frequency of Meeting - Eleven times a year, usually on the first Tuesday of each month (with the exception of January)Key Policy Official - Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stevens has been with the RBA since 1980. Prior to succeeding Ian Macfarlane, Stevens held a variety of positions at the RBA, from head of the Economic Analysis Department to deputy governor in December 2001. As with his predecessor, he is expected to keep a close eye on inflation, which is expected to be a challenge as the Australian economy continues to boom.Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)Structure - Unlike other central banks, decision-making power on monetary policy ultimately rests with the central bank governor.Mandate - To maintain price stability and to avoid instability in output, interest rates and exchange rates. The RBNZ has an inflation target of 1.5%. It focuses hard on this target, because failure to meet it could result in the dismissal of the governor of the RBNZ.Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a yearKey Policy Official - Alan Bollard, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Before his appointment as governor of the RBNZ in September 2002, Bollard served as secretary of the treasury, chairman of the NZ Commerce Commission and director of the NZ Institute of Economic Research. Known as a strong inflation hawk with extensive economic training, Bollard has condemned large current account deficits and raised New Zealand interest rates to a high level of 8.25%. (For further reading, see Current Account Deficits and Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of Payments.)
FREE REPORT: The Five Things That Move the Currency Market
Year after year, key players in the Forex market make a killing by picking the right currencies – now it’s your turn. Access industry gurus Boris and Kathy’s exclusive FREE report, The Five Things That Move the Currency Market – And How to Profit From Them, right now! Putting It All TogetherNow that you know a little more about the structure, mandate and power players behind each of the major central banks, you are on your way to being able to better predict the moves these central banks may make. For many central banks, the inflation target is key. If inflation, which is generally measured by the consumer price index, is above the central bank's target, then you know that it will have a bias toward tighter monetary policy. By the same token, if inflation is far below the target, the central bank will be looking to loosen monetary policy. Combining the relative monetary policies of two central banks is a solid way to predict where a currency pair may be headed. If one central bank is raising interest rates while another is sticking to the status quo, the currency pair is expected to move in the direction of the interest rate spread (barring any unforeseen circumstances). A perfect example is EUR/GBP in 2006. The euro broke out of its traditional range-trading mode to accelerate against the British pound. With consumer prices above the European Central Bank's 2% target, the ECB was clearly looking to raise rates a few more times. The Bank of England, on the other hand, had inflation slightly below its own target and its economy was just beginning to show signs of recovery, preventing it from making any changes to interest rates. In fact, throughout the first three months of 2006, the BoE was leaning more toward lowering interest rates than raising them. This led to a 200-pip rally in EUR/GBP, which is pretty big for a currency pair that rarely moves.
Figure 3Curious to learn more about central banks and monetary policy? Check out What Are Central Banks?, Formulating Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve Tutorial.
by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist, FXCM Access Investopedia's FREE Forex Report - The 5 Things That Move The Currency Market (Email Biography)Kathy Lien is Chief Strategist at the world's largest retail forex market maker, Forex Capital Markets in New York. Her book "Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Swings" (2005, Wiley), written for both the novice and expert, has won much acclaim. Easy to read and easy to apply, this book shows traders how to enter the currency market with confidence - and create long-term success! Kathy has taught currency trading seminars across the U.S. and has also written for CBS MarketWatch, Active Trader, Futures Magazine and SFO Magazine. Follow her blog at www.kathylien.com
Currency ETFs Simplify Forex Trades
Investing in any market can be volatile. Minimizing risk while retaining upside potential is paramount for most investors - that's why an increasing number of traders and investors are diversifying and hedging with currencies. Different currencies benefit from some of the same things that may hurt stock indexes, bonds or commodities and can be a great way to diversify a portfolio. However, digging into currencies as a trader or investor can be daunting.
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New currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) make it simpler to understand the forex market (the largest, most liquid market on the planet), and use it to diversify risk. Now, you can have General Electric (NYSE:GE) and the British pound in your portfolio by holding the CurrencyShares British Pound ETF (PSE:FXB) in the same account. Have an IRA? Sprinkle some euros in there by holding the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (PSE:FXE), and offset some downside risk of your S&P 500 holdings. Read on to learn more about this unique way of using currencies to diversify your holdings. (For more on ETFs, see Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds and Advantages Of Exchange-Traded Funds.)Hedging Against RiskEvery investor is exposed to two types of risk: idiosyncratic risk and systemic risk. Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that an individual stock's price will fall, causing you to accumulate massive losses on that stock. Rooting this kind of risk out of your portfolio is quite simple. All you have to do is diversify your account across a broad range of stocks or stock-based ETFs, thus reducing your exposure to a particular stock. (To learn more, read The Importance Of Diversification and Do You Understand Investment Risk?)However, diversifying across a broad range of stocks only addresses idiosyncratic risk. You still have to face your account's systemic risk. Systemic risk is the exposure you have to the entire stock market falling, causing you to accumulate losses across your entire diversified portfolio. Minimizing the exposure of your portfolio to a bear market used to be difficult. You had to open a futures account or a forex account and try to manage both it and your stock accounts at the same time. While opening a forex account and trading it can be extremely profitable if you apply yourself, many investors aren't ready to take that step. Instead, they decide to leave all of their eggs in their stock market basket and hope the bulls win. Don't let that be you. (Want to give currencies a shot? Read Wading Into The Currency Market.)Currency ETFs are opening doors for investors to diversify. You can now easily mitigate systematic risk in your account and take advantage of large macroeconomic trends around the world by putting your money not only into the stock market but also in the forex market through these funds. (For more see, A Beginner's Guide To Hedging.)How Currency ETFs WorkETF management firms buy and hold currencies in a fund. They then sell shares of that fund to the public. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like you buy and sell stock shares. Investors value the shares of the ETF at 100 times the current exchange rate for the currency being held. For example, let's assume that the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (PSE:FXE) is currently priced at $136.80 per share because the underlying exchange rate for the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) is 1.3680 (1.3680 × 100 = $136.80).You can use ETFs to profit from the exchange rate of the dollar versus the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and a few other major currencies. (For more on this market, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)What makes currencies move?Unlike the stock market, which has a long-term propensity to rise in value, currencies will often channel in the very long term. Stocks are driven by economic and business growth and tend to trend. Conversely, inflation and issues around monetary policy may prevent a currency from growing in value indefinitely. Currency pairs may trend as well, and there are simple factors that influence their value and movement. These factors include interest rates, stock market yields, economic growth and government policy. Most of these can be forecasted and used to guide traders as they hedge risk in the rest of the market and make profits in the forex. Economic Factors and Currency TrendsHere are two examples of economic factors and the currency trends they inspire.Oil and the Canadian DollarEach currency represents an individual economy. If an economy is a commodity producer and exporter, commodity prices will drive currency values. There are three major currencies that are known as "commodity" currencies that exhibit very strong correlations with oil, gold and other raw materials. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is one of these. (For more on how this works, read Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)One ETF that can be traded to profit from the moves in the CAD/USD pair is CurrencyShares Canadian (PSE:FXC). Because the Canadian dollar is on the base side of this currency pair, it will pull the ETF up when oil prices are rising and it will fall when oil prices are declining. Of course, there are other factors at play in that currency's value but energy prices are a major influence, and can be surprisingly predictive of the trend.This is especially useful for stock traders because of the effect that higher energy prices can have on stock values. Additionally, it provides another way for stock traders to speculate on rising commodity prices without having to venture into the futures market. (For on this topic, check out Currency Moves Highlight Equity Opportunities.) In Figures 1 and 2, you can see 18 months of prices for the Canadian dollar compared to oil prices over the same period.
Figure 1: Crude oil (continuous)
Source: MetaStock Pro FX
Figure 2: Canadian dollar
Source: MetaStock Pro FXAs you can see, there is a strong positive correlation between these two markets. This is helpful as a hedge against stock volatility as well as the real day-to-day costs of higher energy prices. Short-term traders may look for a breakout in oil prices that is not reflected in the value of the Canadian dollar immediately. When these imbalances occur, there is opportunity to take advantage of the move the market will make as it "catches up" with oil. Long-term traders can use this as a way to diversify their holdings and speculate on rising energy prices. It is also possible to short the ETF to take advantage of falling oil prices.Interest Rates and the Swiss FrancThere are several forex relationships that are impacted by interest rates, but a dramatic correlation exists between bond yields and the Swiss franc. One ETF that can be used to profit from the Swiss franc, or "Swissie", is the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (PSE:FXF). The currency pair is notated as CHF/USD. When the Swissie is rising in value, the ETF rises as well, as it costs more U.S. dollars to buy a Swiss franc.
FREE REPORT: The Five Things That Move the Currency Market
Year after year, key players in the Forex market make a killing by picking the right currencies – now it’s your turn. Access industry gurus Boris and Kathy’s exclusive FREE report, The Five Things That Move the Currency Market – And How to Profit From Them, right now! The correlation described here involves the 10-year bond yield. You will notice in Figures 3 and 4 that when bond yields are rising, the Swissie falls, and vice versa. Depending on interest rates, the value of the Swissie will frequently rise and fall with bond yields.
Figure 3: 10-Year Bond Yields (TNX)
Source: MetaStock Pro FX
Figure 4: Swiss franc
Source: MetaStock Pro FXThis relationship is useful not only as a way to find new trading opportunities but as a hedge against falling stock prices. The stock market has a positive correlation with bond yields; therefore, if yields are falling, the stock market should be falling as well. A savvy investor who is long the Swissie ETF can offset some of those losses. ConclusionCurrency ETFs have opened the forex market to investors focused on stocks. They adds an additional layer of diversification and can also be used effectively by shorter term traders for quick profits. There are even options available for most of these ETFs.
by John Jagerson (Email Biography)John Jagerson has worked in the capital markets and private equity for most of his career, including investing, writing and money-management. He currently manages a registered CTA and contributes to www.pfxglobal.com, the companion site to the book Profiting With Forex by John Jagerson and S. Wade Hansen.
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New currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) make it simpler to understand the forex market (the largest, most liquid market on the planet), and use it to diversify risk. Now, you can have General Electric (NYSE:GE) and the British pound in your portfolio by holding the CurrencyShares British Pound ETF (PSE:FXB) in the same account. Have an IRA? Sprinkle some euros in there by holding the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (PSE:FXE), and offset some downside risk of your S&P 500 holdings. Read on to learn more about this unique way of using currencies to diversify your holdings. (For more on ETFs, see Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds and Advantages Of Exchange-Traded Funds.)Hedging Against RiskEvery investor is exposed to two types of risk: idiosyncratic risk and systemic risk. Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that an individual stock's price will fall, causing you to accumulate massive losses on that stock. Rooting this kind of risk out of your portfolio is quite simple. All you have to do is diversify your account across a broad range of stocks or stock-based ETFs, thus reducing your exposure to a particular stock. (To learn more, read The Importance Of Diversification and Do You Understand Investment Risk?)However, diversifying across a broad range of stocks only addresses idiosyncratic risk. You still have to face your account's systemic risk. Systemic risk is the exposure you have to the entire stock market falling, causing you to accumulate losses across your entire diversified portfolio. Minimizing the exposure of your portfolio to a bear market used to be difficult. You had to open a futures account or a forex account and try to manage both it and your stock accounts at the same time. While opening a forex account and trading it can be extremely profitable if you apply yourself, many investors aren't ready to take that step. Instead, they decide to leave all of their eggs in their stock market basket and hope the bulls win. Don't let that be you. (Want to give currencies a shot? Read Wading Into The Currency Market.)Currency ETFs are opening doors for investors to diversify. You can now easily mitigate systematic risk in your account and take advantage of large macroeconomic trends around the world by putting your money not only into the stock market but also in the forex market through these funds. (For more see, A Beginner's Guide To Hedging.)How Currency ETFs WorkETF management firms buy and hold currencies in a fund. They then sell shares of that fund to the public. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like you buy and sell stock shares. Investors value the shares of the ETF at 100 times the current exchange rate for the currency being held. For example, let's assume that the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (PSE:FXE) is currently priced at $136.80 per share because the underlying exchange rate for the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) is 1.3680 (1.3680 × 100 = $136.80).You can use ETFs to profit from the exchange rate of the dollar versus the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and a few other major currencies. (For more on this market, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)What makes currencies move?Unlike the stock market, which has a long-term propensity to rise in value, currencies will often channel in the very long term. Stocks are driven by economic and business growth and tend to trend. Conversely, inflation and issues around monetary policy may prevent a currency from growing in value indefinitely. Currency pairs may trend as well, and there are simple factors that influence their value and movement. These factors include interest rates, stock market yields, economic growth and government policy. Most of these can be forecasted and used to guide traders as they hedge risk in the rest of the market and make profits in the forex. Economic Factors and Currency TrendsHere are two examples of economic factors and the currency trends they inspire.Oil and the Canadian DollarEach currency represents an individual economy. If an economy is a commodity producer and exporter, commodity prices will drive currency values. There are three major currencies that are known as "commodity" currencies that exhibit very strong correlations with oil, gold and other raw materials. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is one of these. (For more on how this works, read Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)One ETF that can be traded to profit from the moves in the CAD/USD pair is CurrencyShares Canadian (PSE:FXC). Because the Canadian dollar is on the base side of this currency pair, it will pull the ETF up when oil prices are rising and it will fall when oil prices are declining. Of course, there are other factors at play in that currency's value but energy prices are a major influence, and can be surprisingly predictive of the trend.This is especially useful for stock traders because of the effect that higher energy prices can have on stock values. Additionally, it provides another way for stock traders to speculate on rising commodity prices without having to venture into the futures market. (For on this topic, check out Currency Moves Highlight Equity Opportunities.) In Figures 1 and 2, you can see 18 months of prices for the Canadian dollar compared to oil prices over the same period.
Figure 1: Crude oil (continuous)
Source: MetaStock Pro FX
Figure 2: Canadian dollar
Source: MetaStock Pro FXAs you can see, there is a strong positive correlation between these two markets. This is helpful as a hedge against stock volatility as well as the real day-to-day costs of higher energy prices. Short-term traders may look for a breakout in oil prices that is not reflected in the value of the Canadian dollar immediately. When these imbalances occur, there is opportunity to take advantage of the move the market will make as it "catches up" with oil. Long-term traders can use this as a way to diversify their holdings and speculate on rising energy prices. It is also possible to short the ETF to take advantage of falling oil prices.Interest Rates and the Swiss FrancThere are several forex relationships that are impacted by interest rates, but a dramatic correlation exists between bond yields and the Swiss franc. One ETF that can be used to profit from the Swiss franc, or "Swissie", is the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (PSE:FXF). The currency pair is notated as CHF/USD. When the Swissie is rising in value, the ETF rises as well, as it costs more U.S. dollars to buy a Swiss franc.
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Year after year, key players in the Forex market make a killing by picking the right currencies – now it’s your turn. Access industry gurus Boris and Kathy’s exclusive FREE report, The Five Things That Move the Currency Market – And How to Profit From Them, right now! The correlation described here involves the 10-year bond yield. You will notice in Figures 3 and 4 that when bond yields are rising, the Swissie falls, and vice versa. Depending on interest rates, the value of the Swissie will frequently rise and fall with bond yields.
Figure 3: 10-Year Bond Yields (TNX)
Source: MetaStock Pro FX
Figure 4: Swiss franc
Source: MetaStock Pro FXThis relationship is useful not only as a way to find new trading opportunities but as a hedge against falling stock prices. The stock market has a positive correlation with bond yields; therefore, if yields are falling, the stock market should be falling as well. A savvy investor who is long the Swissie ETF can offset some of those losses. ConclusionCurrency ETFs have opened the forex market to investors focused on stocks. They adds an additional layer of diversification and can also be used effectively by shorter term traders for quick profits. There are even options available for most of these ETFs.
by John Jagerson (Email Biography)John Jagerson has worked in the capital markets and private equity for most of his career, including investing, writing and money-management. He currently manages a registered CTA and contributes to www.pfxglobal.com, the companion site to the book Profiting With Forex by John Jagerson and S. Wade Hansen.
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